Aim at wishlists, not a date
Plan › Beats aims your marketing at a wishlist target. Upload the wishlist export from Steamworks and see your pace and when you'll reach the target; put the Playtest, demo and Next Fest on a calendar next to Steam's sales; and let the gates tell you when it's time to set the release date.
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Upload your wishlists.
The Wishlist activity CSV from Steamworks gives the total and your pace over the last four weeks. Upload a longer export any time: days are replaced, not counted twice.
A forecast, not a guess.
When you reach the target at your current pace, and how much sooner with the demo and Next Fest.
The beats on a calendar.
Steam page, Playtest, demo and Next Fest on 12 months next to Steam's seasonal sales and Next Fest weeks, with creator re-pitches under each beat.
Gates before launch.
Page minimum, Playtest playtime, a demo a month before Next Fest, Next Fest momentum, near the target and a good release week.
The release follows the wishlists.
You set the release date once you're within 1,000 of the target, about two months ahead.